Guizhou Moutai (600519) Follow-up report: 2020 Moutai liquor plan sales increase rate has been approved by the factory
Key points for investment: Moutai factory has a large price difference, and there will be room for breakthrough volume and price increases in the future.According to market surveys, the current bundle price of Feitian Moutai is around 2300-2400 yuan / bottle.Because there is no shelf life for liquor, and at the same time, in the sense of consumers, Moutai has become a counter-value preservation, especially the expected appreciation of vintage wines. The market’s expectations for the price increase of Moutai still exist. Both consumers and investors’ desire to buy stocks in advance areIt is relatively strong, and we expect that the short-term internal gap of Moutai supplementary price will be less likely to decrease.At present, the ex-factory price of Feitian Maotai is only 969 yuan / bottle, which is still far from the bundled price of 2300-2400 yuan / bottle. The channel profit is very rich.We expect that the company’s succession can be reduced to increase the company’s profit while compressing the channel’s profit margin by gradually 西安耍耍网 increasing the volume and gradually increasing the ex-factory price.  The main line of heavy volume in 2020 will gradually increase the company’s profits again by adjusting the channel structure.According to the company’s plan, the company’s production capacity is expected by 2020 5.6 At that time, according to Maotai’s production technology, the wine produced in the year was stored for about 5 years before being sold to the market. Considering the reason for the volatility of the wine during storage, it is estimated that by 2025, the amount of Maotai wine that can be sold is around 5.According to the company announcement, 2020 Moutai wine sales plan3.Spring 45, compared to 2019 sales plan 3.1mm more than 3,500 tons, incremental stretching.If it can be sold for more than 5 years by 2025, the annual compound synthesis for the first 5 years will increase to about 8%.From the 南京夜网 perspective of profit contribution, in addition to the direct increase of profits in the incremental part, we expect that the incremental part of the company will be mostly used for direct sales and supermarket sales, and will increase the company’s profit again by adjusting the channel structure.Because the retail price of direct sales is set at 1499 yuan / bottle, the ex-factory price for the supermarket is expected to be 1399 yuan / bottle.Therefore, compared with the ex-factory price given to dealers, the price difference is about 400-500 yuan / bottle. This part of the price difference can increase the company’s profit after it belongs to the company.  Subsequent is still possible to raise prices.Based on the consideration of socio-political factors such as the rapid price increase of Moutai, the company’s ex-factory price increase is relatively sensitive.In the early stage, the company’s performance can ensure a stable growth by increasing the company’s profits through heavy volume and adjusting the channel structure of larger self-employed and commercial supermarkets.Subsequently, after the release of production capacity, we estimate that the company will maintain the company’s better performance growth potential by increasing the ex-factory price to dealers.  Earnings forecast and investment rating: Maintain the “Buy” rating. Considering that the company has not clearly raised the price at present, the company’s earnings forecast is lowered.The company’s EPS for 2019/20/21 is forecasted to be 34.47/41.18/47.75 yuan, corresponding to 34 in 2019/20/21 PE.32/28.73/24.78 times. At the same time, based on the company’s heavy volume and channel structure adjustment, the performance growth is more deterministic, so we maintain a “Buy” rating.  Risk warning: the macroeconomic downturn, the purchasing power of enterprises and residents decline, the company’s capacity release is not up to expectations, and food safety.