Sany Heavy Industry (600031): 2019 performance forecast meets expectations and attempts to usher in a good start in 2020
Estimated earnings growth of 76 per year.
9% Sany Heavy Industry issued a performance forecast, and expected a net profit of 108 in 2019.
0 million yuan, an increase of 76 in ten years.
9%; deduct non-net profit 100.
0 million yuan, an increase of 65 in ten years.
The forecast range center is in line with market expectations.
Points of Attention In 2019, the demand for the construction machinery industry has grown rapidly, and Sany’s market share has steadily increased.
In 2019, the sales volume of the excavator industry was 23.
60,000 units, an increase of 15 in ten years.
9%, we predict that Sany ‘s market share will increase by about 3?
4ppt, the company ‘s sales growth of excavators increased by more than 35%; we estimate that the sales volume of truck crane and concrete pump truck industry will increase by 30% and 70% in 2019, and the sales growth rate of Sany Heavy Industry is also higher than the industry.
In 2019, we expect Sany’s revenue to increase by more than 30无锡夜网% to around 740 ppm.
The boom of the construction machinery industry is expected to continue in 2020, and Sany Heavy Industry will expand to reach the remaining space.
Looking forward to 2020, we expect the earthmoving machinery industry sales to remain high and flat; road machinery for automobile chassis, including concrete pump trucks, and truck cranes benefit from the accelerated elimination of models below the “National III” emission standards, and industry sales may increase in 2020, respectively.20?
In terms of market competition, we believe that Sany’s excavator, crane and concrete machinery businesses will still benefit from increased import substitution and increased industry concentration.
Focus on overseas market expansion in the medium and long term.
In 2020, we expect Sany ‘s overseas export 深圳桑拿网 business to grow by about 30% per year, which is better than the main advantage.
Looking forward, the improvement of the company’s product quality and the expansion of overseas channels, we believe that the company’s overseas business revenue share is expected to gradually increase.
The acquisition of Sany Automotive Finance is expected to be completed in 1Q2020.
In December 2019, Sany announced that it will invest 33.
8 billion acquisition of Auto Finance Co., Ltd. of Sany Group 91.
43% equity was approved by the shareholders’ meeting on December 30.
We believe that after the completion of the acquisition, the company will flexibly use cash in hand to further increase the return on net assets.
Estimates and recommendations We keep the company’s profit forecast for 2019 unchanged, and in view of the company’s continued increase in market share, we raise our profit forecast for 20205.
2% to 143.
400 million at the same time?Net profit forecast for 2021 is 164.
1 ‰, corresponding to a ten-year growth of 14%.
The company’s current consensus corresponds to 10.
1x / 8.
9 times 2020 / 2021e P / E.
At the same time, considering the upward revision of profit forecast and the continued prosperity of the construction machinery industry, we are based on 13 of 2020e.
0x target P / E, correspondingly raise the company’s target price by 22.
8% to 22.
10 yuan, 28% upside, maintain outperform industry rating.
Risk industry demand falls short of expectations, industry competition intensifies