Yuntianhua (600096): Demand for epidemic situation has a small impact on the company
Recent situation of the company In the near future, we invite Yuntianhua to join in and communicate with investors on the company’s recent operating situation. The summary is as follows.
Commentary on the epidemic situation has less impact on the company’s production and operation.
1) Production and raw material procurement: The company’s main production facilities 武汉夜生活网 have been running at full capacity until the Spring Festival holiday. Before the Spring Festival, coal, synthetic ammonia and sulfur and other major raw materials have supplemental procurement reserves. At the same time, the company’s raw materials such as sulfur and coal are mainly transported by rail and supporting production.Phosphate ore, the epidemic has less impact on the company’s production and raw material procurement.
2) Product sales: Before the Spring Festival, the company had already started the distribution of chemical fertilizer products, and transported chemical fertilizers to the northern market through the combination of railways and sea transportation. However, transportation control in various places caused the transportation of chemical fertilizers to sales outlets in counties, villages, and towns.
Recently, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued documents to guarantee the transportation of agricultural materials. The company expects that chemical fertilizer transportation is expected to gradually return to normal, and the overall impact of the company’s spring plough chemical fertilizer sales will be small.
At present, the profit of phosphate fertilizer is at the bottom, and the price of phosphate fertilizer in the peak season of demand has increased.
The company expects Yuntianhua’s diammonium phosphate gross margin to be 10% at the current price?
15%, monoammonium phosphate gross margin of about 10%, some domestic phosphate fertilizer companies have emerged.
At the same time, the improvement of phosphate fertilizer supply has been tightened. According to Zhuochuang Information, in 2019, the production capacity of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate in Hubei region will account for about 40% / 27%, and affected by the epidemic situation, the operating rate of phosphate fertilizer enterprises in Hubei region is obvious.
As the profit of phosphate fertilizer is currently at the bottom, the operating rate of the combined industry has been reduced, and the inventory of dealers has been reduced, and the spring season for conversion spring demand is coming, the company expects that the price of phosphate fertilizer is expected to increase.
The company will continue to invest the lowest cost.
Since 2H2019, the company has centralized control over the financing and investment of branches and subsidiaries, by reducing the invalid expenditure of monetary funds and financial costs; meanwhile, the company has reduced the management expenses through centralized management of maintenance arrangements and procurement of maintenance materials.
The company plans to continue to work on the forecast of period expenses and reduction of asset-liability ratio.
Estimates suggest that we temporarily maintain our 2019/20 profit forecast2.
65 ppm, profit forecast for 2021, date 4.
6 杭州桑拿网 billion.
The company currently complies with the corresponding P / E ratio of 23 in 2020/21.
We maintain our target price of 6.
8 yuan, corresponding to 13.
5% growth space and 27 / 21x P / E ratio in 2020/21, maintain neutral rating.
The price of risk phosphate fertilizer was lower than expected, and the epidemic situation exceeded expectations.