McGmitter (002851): Performance in line with expectations Still high growth in 2020
Event description The company issued a 2019 performance forecast, and is expected to realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2019.03-4.40,000 yuan, an increase of 50% -100% in ten years. Comment on the event Due to the impact of the consolidation of minority equity in 2018, we used the net profit to measure the company’s operating growth.The specific calculation method is: We simply assume that the company’s net profit is equal to the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company plus the net profit corresponding to the 14% minority equity of Jardine Bathroom, of which Jardine Bathroom promises returns based on performance.After estimation, we expect the company’s 2019 net profit to maintain a rapid growth, of which Q4 net profit is expected to improve over the growth rate. In terms of different products, it is expected that the average value of the company’s various business units will maintain rapid growth. The size of the electric vehicle business will benefit from the volume of core customers BAIC (the output of BAIC A0 and above electric vehicle models in 2019 is about 10).40,000 vehicles, an increase of 75% a year).However, due to the weak downstream production and sales 杭州桑拿 of electric vehicles in Q4, the output of BAIC A0 and above electric vehicle models was about 2.20,000 vehicles, a decrease of at least 26% per year, judged that the electric vehicle business is one of the reasons for slowing down the company’s Q4 growth rate; at the same time, it is expected that the power supply business and sanitary business continue to grow rapidly, forming a certain support for the company’s overall Q4 business growth. Looking forward to 2020, we expect that the company will likely continue to maintain rapid growth.Scale, in the electric vehicle business, the volume and volume of EU5 in the BAIC electric vehicle model, taking into account the positive policies of the first 100 people, it is expected that the environment will warm up by 2020, and the BAIC EU5 model is expected to be BAIC by 2020EU5 can 成都桑拿网 follow the operating market to achieve higher growth rates (estimated that the new energy network will reach about 28 in 2020).50,000 vehicles, an increase of 54% a year).At the same time, the power supply market has large space and large size dispersion. The company has been cultivating for many years, and it is expected that the power supply business is expected to continue to expand. At the same time, the overall market penetration of the smart bathroom is low, far from reaching the ceiling, and the continuous launch of new products is expected to be achieved.Faster growth. Maintaining the previous point of view, it is judged that the company will rely on electric vehicles and electrical consumer goods in the short term, and will continue to develop product lines in the medium and long term.Regardless of the 14% equity consolidation of Jardine Sanitary, the company’s net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company in 2020 and 2021 is expected to be 4, respectively.7,6.100 million, corresponding to 23, 18 times PE.Maintain BUY rating. Risk Warning: 1. Risks of electric vehicle policy; 2. Increased market competition has led to a decline in profitability.