Guoxin Energy (600617): Costs were basically smooth during the period and costs dragged performance

Event: The company released its 2018 annual report and gradually realized operating income of 111.

390,000 yuan, an increase of 15 in ten years.

42%; net profit attributable to mother is 0.

460,000 yuan, an increase of 175 in ten years.

76%, in line with Shen Wanwanyuan’s expectations.

Investment points: Gas sales volume has steadily increased, and downstream prices have generally been smooth.

Benefiting from the coal-to-gas promotion in Shanxi Province, the company achieved gas sales of 48 in 2018.

5.8 billion cubic meters, an increase of 6.
.

49%.

In May 2018, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document to streamline the price of residential valve stations, and changed the gas consumption of residents from the highest gate station price management to the benchmark gate station price management. Allowing the supply and demand sides to determine a clear and specific range within a limit of 20%,The price of gate stations will be linked with the gas price mechanism for non-residents.

We judge that the provincial pipeline network enterprises can transfer part of the upward adjustment of the gate price to the downstream gas company, which is less affected by the combination of residential gas prices.

The company’s gas pipeline operation revenue in 2018 increased by 13,79% per year, and operating costs increased by 13 per year.

28%, gross margin increased by 0 in the short term.

38 units, the price can be basically smooth.

High expenses during the period dragged down performance, and debt increased expected financial burden.

In order to pay for the construction in progress budget, the company’s budget continued to expand until the end of 2018, the company’s debt totaled 24.4 billion US dollars, an increase of about 3 billion yuan.

Affected by this, the company’s financial expenses in 2018 were as high as 7.

32 ppm, an increase of 31 in ten years.

27%.

At the same time, affected by the increase in wages and depreciation, the company’s 2018 sales expenses, management expenses (including research and development expenses) increased by about 1 ‰, and the three periods of expenses 南宁桑拿 basically swallowed the company’s gross sales revenue.

The company announced plans to issue US $ 1.6 billion of short-term financing and US $ 3 billion of targeted debt financing instruments to supplement working capital and repay debt. Debt replacement aims to reduce financial burden.

The reform of the oil and gas system will promote the independence of the oil and gas pipeline network, and the company may usher in the possibility of development.

Recently, the central budget comprehensively deepened the reform committee to promote the marketization of oil and gas pipeline network operation mechanism.

The main idea of the independent oil and gas pipeline network is that the pipeline assets of conventional large oil and gas companies such as PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC will be replaced and reorganized to achieve 四川耍耍网 separation of pipeline transmission and sales.

At present, from the perspective of the price chain of the natural gas industry, the oil and gas producers such as CNPC leave the gas pipelines across the provinces and regions to the provincial grid stations, and then sell them to the provincial grid operation companies at the gate prices set by the Development and Reform Commission.Equivalent to “ex-factory price + long-term backbone network management transmission fee”.

After the establishment of the new pipe network company, the cost supervision and review have been gradually promoted, and the policy of limiting the maximum yield of cross-regional pipeline transmission has been further implemented, and it has moved closer to the development model of “holding the middle and letting go of both ends”.

The company’s senior management cooperated with PetroChina, relying on the Shaanxi-Beijing First Line, Shaanxi-Beijing Second Line, Shaanxi-Beijing Third Line, and the “West-to-East Gas Pipeline” line to obtain gas sources. In the future, if the cost of inter-regional pipeline transportation decreases, the company’s gas supply prices are expected to be synchronized.Reduced, gross margin is expected to significantly increase.

Profit forecast and estimation: At present, the natural gas consumption in Shanxi Province is increasing slowly. We maintain the company’s net profit forecast for the company for 19-20 years to be 1.
.

47, 2.

230,000 yuan, plus 21 years of net profit attributable to mother 2.

88 ppm, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 42, 28 and 22 times, respectively, maintaining the “overweight” level.